What Happened When a Former Lawmaker Bet on His Own Pardon

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has opened a review of trades linked to Adam Kinzinger on the Kalshi prediction market. The trades were placed in December 2024 and January 2025 and included a market that named Kinzinger himself. Kalshi has begun an internal review of the account while the CFTC examines whether the activity violated rules that ban trading on material nonpublic information or on events in which a user is a direct participant.

Kinzinger has said he checked the platform rules before he traded and that he had no inside knowledge; he has also shared screenshots that show he netted $823 from the positions. Although he was a former member of Congress, he had not held office for two years when he made the bets. Enforcement officials have recently pursued cases involving other users who traded on government information, so regulators are watching prediction markets more closely.

Kalshi is a regulated exchange that lists yes or no event contracts. The outcome of this inquiry could affect how the platforms set and enforce rules for users, investors, and public officials.